Crawfish season is approaching Hubei liquid nitrogen cold chain market and then warmed up


Release time:

2022-12-20

Hubei Province, as the main production area of crayfish, in recent years, with the steady development of the crayfish processing industry, the Hubei liquid nitrogen cold chain market can be supported, the demand for liquid nitrogen has increased significantly. And into 2022, the market uncertainty factors increase. 4-5 months of liquid nitrogen market is a rising period, this year, but by the impact of the control of a number of places, the liquid nitrogen market performance downturn, and at this time the listing of crayfish, for the Hubei market is undoubtedly a blessing in disguise, driven by the price of liquid nitrogen prices in the same period compared with a 25% increase.

[Introduction] Hubei Province, as the main production area of crayfish, in recent years, with the steady development of the crayfish processing industry, the Hubei liquid nitrogen cold chain market can be supported, the demand for liquid nitrogen has increased significantly. And into 2022, the market uncertainty factors increase. 4-5 months of liquid nitrogen market is the period of rise, this year, but by the impact of control in many places, liquid nitrogen market performance downturn, and at this time the listing of crayfish, the Hubei market is undoubtedly a blessing in disguise, driven by the price of liquid nitrogen prices in the same period compared with a 25% increase.

With the enhancement of the level of consumption, in recent years, China's crayfish farming industry to maintain a good momentum of development, and its processing industry has also been accompanied by a greater development for the liquid nitrogen cold chain market to bring support. Hubei Province enjoys the reputation of "the world to see the crayfish in China, China to see the crayfish in Hubei", which maintains a leading position in the field of crayfish processing, so there is a greater demand for liquid nitrogen, liquid nitrogen market response is faster. Right now is the crayfish season, Hubei liquid nitrogen market has become the focus of attention, the overall performance? Can the historical high price be reproduced?

The trend over the same period is roughly similar, the average price in Hubei rose 25% year-on-year

As can be seen from the chart, the trend of the liquid nitrogen market in Hubei is roughly similar to the first half of January-May, January-April prices were low and shocking, and began to climb in mid-April, the price showed a slow upward trend. According to Zhuochuang information data monitoring, the average price of liquid nitrogen market in Hubei from January to early May 2022 was 541 yuan/ton, up 19% year-on-year; among them, the average price of liquid nitrogen market in Hubei from mid-April to early May was 660 yuan/ton, up 25% compared with the same period in 2021. Although the two-year trend is similar, but behind the influence of different factors.

First, the steady development of the crawfish processing industry, enhance the liquid nitrogen cold chain consumption

In recent years, China's crawfish processing industry continues to develop steadily, crawfish processing enterprises are mainly concentrated in the crawfish market in the middle and late start processing, generally in May-June each year, this stage is with liquid nitrogen volume is relatively large period. Relevant data show that China's crayfish processing enterprises above scale 123, the total processing volume of 880,700 tons in 2020, according to the expected year-on-year growth of 10%, the total processing volume of about 970,000 tons in 2021, 2022 is expected to break a hundred.

In 2020, the processing volume in Hubei Province exceeded 600,000 tons, accounting for nearly 70% of the total processing volume of processing enterprises above the national scale. If we look at the processing volume as a percentage, the processing volume of Hubei Province in 2021 will be about 680,000 tons. We based on the 26% share of liquid nitrogen in the food sector in Hubei Province in 2021, combined with the local consumption, the demand support for liquid nitrogen for crawfish in Hubei Province in 2021 accounted for about 30% of the food sector, and is expected to continue to increase in 2022. Accompanied by the steady development of its processing industry, it is bound to bring some support to the consumption of liquid nitrogen cold chain.

Second, the impact of peripheral control, the inflow of peripheral resources is limited

According to the data monitoring of Zhuochuang Information, as of the end of 2021, the capacity of air separation in Hubei Province reached 1.08 million Nm3/h, an increase of 35% compared with 2020, mainly distributed in Wuhan, Jingmen, Huangshi and other places. Driven by the expansion of air separation capacity, liquid nitrogen capacity in Hubei continues to grow, and the output of liquid nitrogen in Hubei province reached 460,000 tons in 2021, an increase of 15% over 2020. From the point of view of the flow of resources, in addition to local digestion of liquid nitrogen in Hubei, there are also some resources and neighboring market interoperability, especially in the crayfish demand season, the inflow of resources from the surrounding area will increase.

This year, the situation is different from previous years, since the beginning of mid-March, a number of tightened control, especially in East China, Central China, North China and other regions. Affected by this, the circulation of resources between the provinces is limited, enterprises in addition to local and neighboring digestion, poor outgoing, shipments after the pressure more than choose to reduce the burden, parking to ease the pressure. At present, some areas are still tightly controlled, and when the current lobster season opens in Hubei, not many peripheral resources enter, even if there is a certain arbitrage space, but also due to the increase in various costs, the inflow is limited. Therefore, with the amplification of the demand for liquid nitrogen in Hubei, but also for the local enterprises to provide a certain degree of support, which is also this year's neighboring prices are less than expected, while the price of Hubei is higher than the same period last year, one of the reasons.

Third, the advantages of outstanding, liquid nitrogen quick-freezing crayfish still dominate

Food quick-freezing and preservation, people will use Freon, liquid ammonia, liquid nitrogen, etc. as refrigerant, and in the field of crayfish quick-freezing, the application of the most is still liquid nitrogen. Crayfish caught up after processing, and then use liquid nitrogen quick-freezing machine on the crayfish quick-freezing, quick-frozen crayfish shelf life can be up to 18 months. Liquid nitrogen quick-freezing machine is -196 ℃ of liquid nitrogen as a refrigerant, it can freeze crayfish at high speed, in this high-speed freezing in the rapid formation of water in the tiny ice crystals, effectively inhibit or kill the reproduction and growth of microorganisms. At the same time, with liquid nitrogen quick-freezing, the product's water loss rate is low, the taste and nutritional value can be retained to the limit.

In recent years, although due to cost reasons, some processing companies have also tried to use other refrigerants to quick-freeze crayfish, but based on the above advantages, alternatives to liquid nitrogen quick-freeze crayfish has not yet formed a great impact on large-scale processing enterprises are still dominated by liquid nitrogen quick-freeze.

Fourth, the upstream and downstream warm up in advance to cope with peak season demand support

Remember in 2018, when the two lakes by the main enterprise device failure, Guangxi main enterprise centralized maintenance and Southwest shortage of several factors, supported by the peak season of crayfish, liquid nitrogen in Hubei into the "hard to find" situation, the price continued to soar, at the end of May in Hubei rose to a high of 1,800-1,850 yuan / ton. As of now, the market price of liquid nitrogen in Hubei is 650-800 yuan/ton, which is not comparable with the historical high price in 2018. Mainly after experiencing the fiery demand for liquid nitrogen in the lobster season of 2018, at the beginning of 2019, in order to ensure the normal supply of downstream dosage and cope with the tense situation brought about by the listing of lobsters, the upstream and downstream warmed up in advance, and signed short- and medium-term contracts. At the same time, while preserving the volume, to avoid the occurrence of many uncertainties, resulting in recent years in the lobster season in Hubei liquid nitrogen market prices have risen, but the historical high price is difficult to appear. In addition, in recent years, with the continuous expansion of production capacity in Hubei, the mismatch between supply and demand is more difficult to reproduce.

Overall, in this particular period of the year, by the impact of the control of many places, the commodity market performance is low. In this stage that should have risen, the liquid nitrogen market is weak despite the peak season, and the listing of crayfish at this time is undoubtedly a blessing in disguise for the Hubei market. The current inventory pressure of the main enterprises is not big, in some areas around the control is still tight under the influence of the market is expected to be OK, it is expected that in the short and medium term, the price of liquid nitrogen in Hubei Province can still be maintained at a high level, or fluctuations between 700-800 yuan / ton. Long-term with the booming crawfish processing industry, the consumption of liquid nitrogen in the cold chain market in Hubei Province is expected to continue to grow.